Estimation of the Global Number of Nicotine Vapers in 2020 - Tomasz Jerzyński

Nicotine vaping products (NVP) are potentially disruptive innovations with considerable potential for population health. A key question is whether NVP are replacing tobacco cigarettes, which requires mapping uptake of NVP. To estimate the prevalence of vaping in countries lacking information, we used the method of assumed similarity between countries in the same region and economic condition. Survey data on NVP users were available for 49 countries covering 2.8b of the adult population in 2018 and unavailable for 2.9b. Information on vaping was lacking for half of the world's population. We estimated a total of 58.1m vapers worldwide in 2018. By reference to market growth the data were adjusted to arrive at estimates for 2020. Results was fitted to revenue data at the 2018. For the year 2020, the projection is 68m vapers globally. Our estimate of 68m nicotine vapers indicates considerable uptake given that NVP products have been available on most markets for only a decade, that there is either no support or opposition to vaping in many countries, and that countries which regulate NVP have controls over advertising and promotion.